Posted by
Visions from the Right on Tuesday, May 24, 2011 7:36:18 PM
It was done recently with Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), just
as 20-30 years ago with Ozone Depletion. With AGW, it was hyped to be a
destroyer of ecology, and a harbinger of possible death. Instead, people found
natural variations changing earth’s climate, from hot to cold. It’s seems likely
natural variations affect the ozone as well.
With ozone depletion, millions were (and are) convinced that
chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s), and certain brominated compounds
(Halons) were the culprits. As a result, the most stable and non-toxic
refrigerants, and safest halogenated fire retardants were phased out of
production.
Two scientists—Roland and Molina—seemed determined to find and answer to
suspected ozone (O3) depletion. Only problem was ozone was only being depleted
in large quantities over the earth’s Antarctic pole.
Their theory claiming CFCs would deplete the ozone layer was actually theory
#7, invented in December 1973. The first five ozone depletion theories
(1-[SuperSonicTransport (SST)-water], 2-[SST-nitrogen oxides], 3-[atmospheric
nuclear tests], 4-[fertilizers], and 5-[methane gases from cows]) didn’t quite
fit the bill. Then, the theory “du-jour” (#6) was chlorine from the Space
Shuttle exhaust would cause reduced ozone over Florida, and eventually deplete
the ozone layer worldwide. However, Rowland and Molina later found a better
source of chlorine in the atmosphere. Hence, theory #7--CFCs.
(The Ozone Depletion
Theory)
Their theory about ozone depletion couldn’t quite overcome a number of
obstacles, however:
1) The first comprehensive worldwide measurements started in
1978, with the Nimbus-7 satellite. It was not known what was happening with
ozone for the eons of prior earth history.
2) The ozone layer is likely self-correcting. With less O3,
more UV rays can penetrate deeper into the atmosphere, encountering a higher O2
concentration, where it forms more O3. A likely reason for little, if any,
additional UV radiation getting to the earth’s surface.
3) With purported ozone depletion, thinning of the ozone
layer (no ‘hole’) that occurred throughout the 1980s
apparently stopped in the early 1990s, too soon to credit implementation of the
Montreal Protocol. A 1998 World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) report said, “since 1991, the linear
(downward) trend observed during the 1980s has not continued, but rather total
column ozone has been almost constant …” [The Sentinel- The Ozone
Layer: The hole truth.]
4) More importantly, the dreaded increase in ground level
UVb failed to materialize. The much-hyped acceleration in skin cancer rates
never existed, and nothing was documented. National Cancer
Institute statistics show that malignant melanoma incidence and
mortality, which had been undergoing a long-term increase predating alleged
ozone depletion, has actually been leveling off during the putative ozone
crisis.
5) Faced with assumed UVb increases from ozone destruction
in the 1990’s, a Canadian Parliamentary Committee began
investigating ozone depletion, with the intent to control the alleged problem.
Major participants were in groups: 1) Friends of Earth (5
members), DuPont (5) [major CFC producer], and 3 climate
scientists. Dr. Ball describes the proceedings in Ozone And Carbon
Dioxide.
6) At the meeting, DuPont (largest producers of
CFCs) reps said very little; they were already phasing out CFC’s, and had a
replacement product (HFC-134A) in preparation.
7) A few other assumptions made were: a)
early on it was assumed that UV light was a constant (not true with sunspot
cycles); b) Roland and Molina demonstrated CFC’s could
destroy ozone in very artificial laboratory conditions,
c) there was no actual evidence of losses of stratospheric
ozone other than Antarctica, but ozone levels were found higher than
pre-protocol levels in 1989; d)
Protocol participants intensely focused on CFC’s almost to
exclusion of other possible explanations; e) bureaucracies
were established, laws passed, and punishments determined for anyone caught
using CFC’s; f) wind patterns (i.e., Circumpolar
Vortex), and Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSC) were considered
possible explanations for destruction of ozone; and g) one
point of CFC atmospheric lifetime was forgotten.
Further, no ecosystem or species was ever shown to be seriously harmed by
ozone depletion. This is true even in
Antarctica, where the largest seasonal
ozone losses, the so-called Antarctic ozone hole, occur annually.
8) Cosmic Rays (CRs) from space, and those emanating from
the sun during sunspot activity, are the possible destroyers of ozone. Qing-Bin
Lu’s latest proof of the CR theory for the ozone depletion was in Physical
Review Letters on 3/19/9 [a pdf of the paper]. Dr. Lu, a physics
and astronomy professor at the University of Waterloo (Ontario,
Canada), said the fallacy was accepted for more than twenty years that
Earth's ozone layer is depleted by chlorine atoms produced by CFCs.
Lu and Sanche’s Study Suggests Cosmic Rays
May Destroy Ozone: Scientific American. Results show that CR
electrons are about a million times more likely to interact inside the cloud
than anyone previously believed. They found evidence for their model in a
laboratory simulation of the conditions found in Antarctic clouds. They cooled a
metal bar to below -170 °C, and condensed water vapor and CFCs onto its surface.
When they then bombarded this "cloud" with low-energy electrons like those
produced by CR’s, chlorine was produced.
All recent scientific research indicated Cosmic rays
linked to ozone hole - SciForums.com. Both Lu
and Sanche analyzed reliable CR and ozone data during 1980-2007, which cover two
full “Schwabe” 11-year sunspot cycles. This unambiguously showed the time
correlations between CR intensity and ozone depletion, especially over
Antarctica. [The Ozone Hole UW prof says
cyclic ozone hole proves cosmic ray theory.]
Qing-Bin Lu stating prior information on CFC ozone depletion emphatically
(as indicated by his use of italics): "These conclusions were
based on climate model simulations rather than direct observations."
9) Stratospheric chemistry is very complex, so scientists
were never sure how effective CFC's would be at destroying O3.
The entire ozone scare orchestrated EPA's $32 Trillion Negligible Risk. It is a
fact that all CFC’s were not physically destroyed, although a small percentage
was.
In 1992, International Refrigeration experts conservatively
estimated that the ban on CFCs was going to kill between 20 to 40 million people
every year, through hunger, starvation, and food-borne diseases.
The real nail in the coffin for CFC-12 is its atmospheric lifetime of 80-100
years. CFC 11/12/113 worldwide production maximized in 1985 at 2.1 billion
pounds (writer is ex-DuPonter). Knowing CFC-12 was stable enough
to last at least 80 years, 2060 is the year when maximum CFCs will have reached
the stratosphere. It is a fact that all those CFC’s were not physically
destroyed, although a small percentage was.
If UVb radiation had been increased by ozone depletion since 1960 CFC initial
production, we would have all experienced increased rates of cancer by now, with
the worst to come on 2060. The Montreal Protocol’s claim to
fame was no increased cancers. That happened, but it does not seem what they
did, diminished natural variances. In the meantime, millions of deaths, $32
trillion wastefully spent, and an intensely political
issue was put to rest.
It is still true you can’t prove a negative.
Why is it that respected scientists won’t believe that an Intelligent
Designer knew that ozone depletion would be suspected in the
destruction of ozone, but had built in a compensating step to eliminate that
hazard? Can man feel omnipotent enough where he believes he completely controls
his destiny?
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Kevin Roeten can be reached at roetenks@charter.net.